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Although the relatively slow onset of respiratory disease, low vaccination rates threaten that trend, and the rapid development of some diseases is putting children at risk.
Overall, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention He predicts This season is likely to be the same — or even better — than last, but the peak number of respiratory virus hospitalizations is likely to be higher than in the years before the Covid-19 pandemic.
But now, levels of Covid-19 in the US are the lowest they've been since the start of the pandemic and are declining, according to the CDC. Data As of Dec. 2, wastewater data show that flu and respiratory syncytial virus, also known as RSV, are circulating at low levels, but emergency room visits for both viruses are starting to increase.
Experts say there is still much to change.
“Historically, the week after Thanksgiving, cases spike, and we see how quickly they spike between the Christmas holidays,” said Dr. Andy Pekosz, a virologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Public health.
New covid-19 variants will affect the CDC's respiratory disease season forecasts, but “vaccination is expected to play a key role in preventing hospitalizations for flu, covid-19 and RSV,” the agency said.
Covid-19 vaccination rates are lower than they were at this time last year, according to the CDC Data It shows. Fewer than 1 in 5 adults and only 1 in 12 children received the updated Covid-19 vaccine for this season.
And most adults — about 60% — don't plan to get the updated Covid-19 vaccine, according to a survey published last month by the Pew Research Center. Most adults who did not plan to get the vaccine said they did not plan to or were worried about side effects; A quarter said they had no vaccinations at all.
Flu vaccination rates are also low. As of mid-November this season, only 37 percent of adults and 33 percent of children have received the flu vaccine. According to the CDC, flu vaccination rates among children are lower than they have been in the past six years. Data; The rate is nearly 12 percent higher than before the outbreak and 5 percent lower than last season.
“Vaccines don't always guarantee that a child will get rid of an illness, but they generally provide enough protection to make sure the illness is less severe,” said Elizabeth Choma, a pediatric nurse specialist at Loudoun Medical Group and an assistant professor at George Washington. University School of Nursing. For example, flu statistics show that the majority of childhood deaths from influenza occur in children who have not been vaccinated against the flu.
Respiratory diseases pose special risks to children, experts say.
“Infants, toddlers and preschoolers have smaller airways, which makes it harder for them to breathe when their airways are inflamed,” Choma said. “In addition, infants are obligate nasal breathers, meaning they breathe through their noses. When they are congested, they have difficulty breathing and perform daily activities such as drinking, which increase their risk of dehydration.”
RSV infection is mild in adults, but children and the elderly are more likely to develop severe disease.
The rate of test positivity for RSV is the same as for influenza or covid-19, CCD. Data It shows. And hospitalization rates among children are rising rapidly – there were about 3 RSV hospitalizations for every 100,000 children in the week ending November 23, double the number a month earlier. There were at least 21 hospitalizations per 100,000 infants each week, down from 14 a month earlier. Meanwhile, the hospitalization rate for adults did not increase above 0.5 during this period.
Another respiratory disease, known as walking pneumonia, caused by the bacteria Mycoplasma pneumoniae, is spreading rapidly among young children, and children's hospitals are feeling the strain.
CDC first warned The increase and trends of these infections did not improve in October. In the year In 2023, after a few years of decline in the Covid-19 pandemic, cases are on the rise worldwide. But intelligence from the U.S. this year shows that hospital visits peaked in August and have remained high ever since — especially among children. The increase in children ages 2 to 4 is particularly noteworthy because walking pneumonia is not typically a leading cause of disease in this age group, according to the CDC.
The rise in respiratory infections can strain hospital systems and exacerbate ongoing supply chain challenges, especially in overcrowded emergency rooms, said Dr. Torey Mack, chief medical officer of the Children's Hospital Association.
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Only a few weeks into the respiratory season, few children's hospitals are feeling the impact, she said. For example, the emergency room at Cook Children's Medical Center in Fort Worth, Texas, is nearing capacity as hospitalizations for RSV and pneumonia increase.
Cases of pneumonia in children requiring hospitalization have also increased in Central Virginia, said Dr. David Marcello, MD, director of pediatrics at Virginia Commonwealth University's Richmond Children's Hospital. he said. This approach, he suspects, “may get worse as pollen and mold counts increase, cooler weather keeps everyone indoors and holidays bring people together.”
“Children's hospitals have learned over the years to anticipate this high incidence and have the expertise they need to care for children, especially young children, who are most vulnerable to this disease,” Mack said. “Because the needs based on the impact of respiratory diseases can increase significantly, it is very important to have the expertise of pediatricians who can take the care and quick action that children need.”