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Covid-19 levels It's the lowest it's ever been in the United States, but another new strain of the virus threatens to disrupt the downward trend as the country heads into winter.
KP.2 – one of the so-called FLiRT variants – JN.1 has become the dominant coronavirus variant in the United States, he said. Data From the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Data up to May 11 showed it was responsible for more than a quarter of cases in the country, twice as many as JN.1. A related variant, KP.1.1, caused about 7% of cases, CDC data show.
The FLiRT variants are all part of the extended Omicron family – the JN.1 variant that took the storm this winter. The abbreviation in the name refers to the amino acid positions The virus has picked up mutations – some in places that help it evade the immune response and others that help it spread further.
“Variants of Covid-19 are accumulating mutations that do one of two things: they prevent the antibodies you've developed from a vaccine or infection from interacting with the virus – we call it immune evasion – or they increase their strength.” This is where viruses attach to cells, said Dr. Andy Pekosz, a virologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
This has become a common pattern in the way the virus that causes Covid-19 continues to evolve, but experts say we still don't have enough information to predict where the changes will go next or how the virus will travel. Population.
Mutations of FLiRT variants pose a real threat to increased transmission—and a possible summer wave. Covid-19 is adjusting to some seasonal patterns, which have included summer outbreaks in past years, but this year's true scale of risk is unclear.
“We've had some differences in the past that start strong and then don't take over. These subvariants may gradually become dominant, or they may account for between 20% and 40% of cases and then remain there. We'll just have to see, says Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt University. “The virus continues to take over. It's going to tell us what to do. All our crystal balls are cloudy.
Since the US public health emergency ended a year ago, Covid-19 surveillance has dropped sharply, adding to the uncertainty. But the available data is consistent. for now, Waste water monitoring It indicates that viral activity is very low and declining in all regions of the country, and the rate of hospitalization for Covid-19 is extremely low.
What we have learned from the labs is that the FLiRT variants are so far as transmissible as the other omicron sub-variants, which means they are highly contagious. “But from a clinical presentation point of view, they don't seem to be causing more severe disease or any disease at all,” Schaffner said.
As of May 1, the requirement that all hospitals report Covid-19 data to the federal government expires. But Schaffner Vanderbilt University Medical Center is part of a CDC-led surveillance network that tracks trends based on a sample of hospitals covering about 10% of the US population. The rate of Covid-19 hospitalizations dropped to about 1 new admission for every 100,000 people at the end of April, from about 8 new admissions for every 100,000 people in the first week of the year. Data It shows.
While FLiRT variants pose some threat this winter, experts are focused on what could happen in the fall.
“If I were to be predictive, I'd say this could lead to a few more issues this summer. But when we get down to failure, it's going to be a matter of which one is different,” Pekosz said. “Fall is probably the time when we expect to see more cases of Covid. And if there are many of these mutations that suppress the immune system, there is a high chance of developing high blood pressure in the fall.
Autumn and winter pose a greater risk because of the built-up immunity in the population, he said.
“The virus now needs better conditions for transmission, and those better transmission conditions are probably in the fall when the weather is colder, people spend more time indoors and are more likely to be in areas where respiratory virus transmission occurs. more efficient”
The study, published Wednesday in the medical journal JEMA, underscores the burden of Covid-19 in the US. This winter, the hospitalization rate for Covid-19 was much lower than in previous years, but it was still more deadly than the flu. A Research Of the thousands of hospitalized patients, 5.7% of Covid-19 patients died, while 4.2% were hospitalized for influenza. In other words, Covid-19 carries a 35% higher mortality rate than the flu.
People who received the latest Covid-19 vaccine last fall may still have some protection against recent differences. It was found that the vaccine targets a different race Equally effective on the JN.1, and experts say some of those benefits may extend to its FLiRT cousins. People who have had a recent infection – especially since the beginning of the year when JN.1 was prominent – may also have some protection. But the immune system gets weaker over time.
In June, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's Vaccine Advisory Committee will meet to discuss recommendations for this fall's version of the Covid-19 vaccine. The meeting was extended for three weeks to “allow more time for follow-up information” to “get more up-to-date information when discussing and making recommendations.” Post On the website of the federal agency.
Currently, experts say that the risk is relatively low.
“Like everything with Covid, our attitude can change in a week or two. But right now, we're in a really great place — the best place we've been in a long, long time,” Schaffner said.