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A A new study The global fertility rate, which has been declining in all countries since 1950, is expected to continue to decline until the end of the century, resulting in profound demographic changes.
Fertility rate is the average number of children born to a woman during her lifetime. Globally, this number has risen from 4.84 in 1950 to 2.23 in 2021 and will continue to decline to 1.59 in 2100, according to the new analysis. Global Burden of Disease, Injuries and Risk Factors Study 2021A research effort led by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. The study was published Wednesday in the Lancet journal.
“What we're experiencing now, and have been experiencing for decades, is something we've never seen before in human history, a broad, nationwide, cross-cultural shift toward choice and smaller families,” said Dr. Jennifer D. Sciuba, a demographer and Author and co-author of “8 Billion and Counting: How Sex, Death and Migration Are Reshaping Our World,” who was not involved with the new study.
Dr. Christopher Murray, senior author of the study and director of the IHME, said there are several reasons for this change; These include increased education and employment opportunities for women and better access to contraception and reproductive health services.
Dr. Gitau Mburu, a scientist in the Division of Sexual and Reproductive Health and Research at the World Health Organization, who wrote the opinion piece published alongside the study, said in an email to . Economic factors such as the direct cost of raising children, the risk of infant mortality, and changing values of gender equality and self-sufficiency are forces that contribute to declining birth rates. The relative contributions of these factors vary over time and country, he added.
To maintain a stable population, countries need a total fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman, which is called the replacement level. When the birth rate falls below the replacement level, the population begins to decline.
The new analysis found that by 2021, 46 percent of countries had fertility rates below replacement levels. This number will increase to 97% by 2100, meaning that the population of almost every country in the world will decline by the end of the century.
A Analysis of the past In the year Published in the Lancet in 2020, the IHME predicts that the world population will decline to around 9.7 billion in 2064 and then to 8.8 billion in 2100. Another prediction is by United Nations World Population Prospects 2022 By the 2080s, the world population is predicted to reach 10.4 billion.
Regardless of the exact timing of the world's peak population, it is likely to decline in the second half of the century, Skuba said, with dramatic geopolitical, economic and social consequences.
Although the birth rate is decreasing in all countries, the rate of decrease is uneven, which will change the distribution of live births around the world, according to the study.
The study predicts that it will increase from 18 percent in 2021 to 35 percent by 2100.
This change in fertility distribution creates a “demographically divided world” in which high-income countries face the consequences of aging populations and declining labor force, while low-income regions maintain high fertility rates, straining available resources, the analysis said. .
“An important contribution of the study is to highlight the demographic differences between the richest countries (with very low fertility) and the poorest countries (which still have high fertility),” said Dr. Teresa Castro Martin, professor of geography at the Institute of Economics. Demographic Council said in a statement Science Media Center. “Globally, births will increase in areas of the world vulnerable to climate change, resource scarcity, political instability, poverty and infant mortality.”
At one end, high-income countries with declining fertility rates will experience an aging population that will undermine national health insurance, social security programs, and health care infrastructure. According to the study, they also have to contend with labor shortages.
The researchers suggest that policies that encourage immigration and workforce innovation, such as advances in artificial intelligence, ethics and efficiency can help mitigate some of the economic impacts of this demographic shift.
The analysis looked at the effectiveness of birth control policies that some countries have implemented, such as childcare subsidies, extended parental leave and tax incentives. The projections show an effect rate of no more than 0.2 additional live births per woman if contraceptive policies are implemented, which does not suggest a strong and sustained rebirth rate, the study says.
Although pro-parenting policies may be beneficial to society for other reasons, they do not seem likely to reverse current demographic trends, Murray said.
The researchers emphasized that low birth rates and moderate pro-fertility policies should not be used to justify measures that force women to have more children, such as restricting reproductive rights and restricting contraceptives.
“There's a real concern with some governments trying to pressure women to have more children,” Murray said. “It is very easy to go from encouraging women to have more children to forcing them to have fewer.”
A shrinking population poses major economic and social challenges, but it also has environmental benefits, Mburu said.
A smaller world population can reduce pressure on global resources and reduce carbon emissions. However, the increase in per capita consumption due to economic development may offset these benefits, the study says.
On the other hand, in low-income countries, having more live births threatens the security of food, water and other resources and makes child mortality more difficult. The analysis predicts that political instability and security issues may arise in these vulnerable areas as well.
The projections show that improving access to modern contraception and women's education – the two primary drivers of fertility – will reduce birth rates and limit the increase in live births in low-income areas.
Universal women's education or universal contraception in sub-Saharan African countries. In 2030, the total fertility rate would rise to around 2.3 in 2050, compared to 2.7 in the reference scenario, the study said.
These changes also contribute to women's empowerment, which has important societal benefits, the study says.
“The main stress comes from our inability to adjust,” Sciuba said. “How do we fix what we have? I think that's where we really lack creativity and political will.
Sciuba said she thinks about three possible ways society can adapt to a shrinking and aging world population.
One scenario is the world we're in, where we do business as usual, maintain an economic policy based on continued population growth, and implement a few birth control policies that probably won't make much of a difference, she said. This does not solve any of the economic and social problems that this study outlines.
The second scenario is a terrifying world where they manipulate fear and terror and women are forced to have more children.
And the final scene is a robust world where we realize that we don't change the number of children people have, but learn to adapt our system to the new reality.
Studies like these, which show and predict global demographic changes, are important, says Sciuba, because they can inform resilient planning for the future. However, predictions should always be interpreted with caution, she said. It is more important to look at general trends than specific details.
“The most important thing is to zoom in and say, 'There's no doubt there's been a shift,'” she says. “'It's changing, so what are we going to do?' ”